Demand Forecasting Study for Lines 8 and 9 of the São Paulo Metro, Brazil

São Paulo needed to critically review the concession structure for Lines 8 and 9 of its metro system to ensure long-term sustainability and efficient service delivery. The challenge was to develop a demand forecasting model for the São Paulo metropolitan area using PTV Visum, validate future socio-economic scenarios, and integrate them into comprehensive urban and transport plans. Our approach aimed to provide decision-makers with data-driven insights to optimize the planning, operation, and investment in the metro lines, ensuring their alignment with future growth and mobility needs in the region.

MCRIT conducted a comprehensive analysis of mobility growth around Lines 8 and 9 of the São Paulo Metro, assessing transportation patterns and demand in the surrounding areas. We developed a GIS database to integrate and evaluate socio-economic data, providing a clear view of the demographic and economic factors affecting transit usage. We modeled the public transport system of the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo using PTV Visum, allowing for detailed forecasting and demand estimation under various economic and mobility scenarios. Our team provided expert recommendations for mitigating demand risks and ensuring sustainable service delivery. Additionally, we offered technical support throughout the tender phase, ensuring alignment with project objectives and facilitating a smooth transition to implementation.